Saturday, July 12, 2008

Long Tail and Shelf Life


Has the demand curve flattened as choices and access to those choices have exploded? Do the many little guys now have a chance to dislodge the few big guys? Or do people still want to do and buy what most other people do? Do we like the bandwagon or jump off of it? I say short-tailed big bodies still beat long-tailed small-bodies. A crowd draws a crowd. We like social validation. We like to participate in what others are participating in. Read Lee Gomes in the WSJ.

However, it is also true that when something big sticks around so long as to become predictable and boring, it will be slowly knocked off its perch by a fresh, growing replacement. The crowd will cross the street to see something newer, better, more special. Is shelf life growing shorter in the new world? Read Noah Brier about Metcalfe's Plateau.

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